MP3音檔 (按右鍵可下載聽)：
http://static.iyuba.com/sounds/minutes/1017.mp3
中英文稿：
Hello and welcome to 6 Minute English. I‘m Alice...
大家好，歡迎收聽六分鐘英語。我是愛麗絲。
… and I’m Finn. Hello.
大家好，我是芬恩。
Hello, Finn. You’re off on holiday tomorrow, aren’t you?
你好，芬恩。明天你就要去度假了是嗎？
I am and you know, and I’m dreading it. I hate flying!
是的，但我有點害怕。我討厭坐飛機！
Do you? I didn’t know you had a phobia – and that means a strong and unreasonable fear of something.
是嗎？我不知道你還有恐懼症。恐懼症是指對某事物持有強烈的不正常的恐懼。
Well, I don’t think this is a phobia because it isn’t unreasonable. Flying thousands of feet up in the sky in a tin can, you know, that’s not safe!
我認為這不是恐懼症，因為這並不是不正常的。飛機就像是一個易開罐，在幾千米的高空中飛行，這很不安全。
Flying is safer than you think, Finn. It’s much riskier to drive or cycle to work. And, actually, risk taking is the subject of today’s show! Risk means the chances of something bad happening. For example, did you know that your chance of being knocked off your bicycle and killed during a one-mile journey is the same as your chances of winning the lottery?
飛行比你想像的安全，芬恩。開車或騎自行車上班比這危險得多。事實上今天的主題就是冒險。風險是指不好的事情發生的可能性。例如，你知道嗎？一英里的路程中你從自行車上摔下來致死的可能性和你中彩票的可能性一樣大。
You know Alice, I didn’t know that.
好吧，我不知道。
And this leads me on to our quiz question for today: What are the odds … what are the chances of either of these two things happening? Is it…a) 1 in 4 million? b) 1 in 14 million? Or c) 1 in 400 million?
這也是今天的問題：這兩件事情發生的概率是多大？a)四百萬分之一? b) 一千四百萬分之一? 還是 c) 四億分之一?
I have no idea. I’ll go with the big number: 1 in 400 million, c).
我也不知道，就選最大的那個數字吧，c) 四億分之一。
OK. So we’ll find out later if you’re right or wrong later on. Now let’s listen to Andreas Wilkey, a psychologist at Clarkson University in New York, talking about why we’re bad at assessing risk.
好的，之後我們再看你回答得是否正確。現在，我們聽聽紐約克拉克森大學心理學家Andreas Wilkey解釋我們為什麼不善於評估風險。
People typically fear anything which is small probability but it’s extremely catastrophic if it were to happen… Think about dying in a plane crash, think about a nuclear meltdown from the nearby power plant. Recently we have another increase in these birds’ virus outbreaks in South Korea. People read about that. And they may pay a lot of attention to that in the news but they may forget to get their flu shot.
人們通常很害怕小概率事件的發生，因為一旦發生就是毀滅性的災難。比如死於空難，比如附近電廠發生核洩漏。最近韓國又爆發了禽流感。人們看到這些資訊。他們也許會密切關注這些新聞但是卻不記得打流感疫苗。
That was Andreas Wilkey from Clarkson University. And we heard that a small probability of something happening means it’s unlikely to happen. But we worry about big or catastrophic events such as catching bird flu or dying in a plane crash because we have a gut reaction to them– in other words, we react emotionally. A catastrophic event is something that causes a huge amount of damage and suffering.
上述是克拉克森大學Andreas Wilkey的看法。小概率事件是指不太可能發生的事件。但是我們擔心大事件或災難性事件的發生，例如得禽流感或死於飛機失事，因為我們有一種本能反應，換句話說我們的情感反應。災難性事件是指造成大量傷亡的事件。
And it’s often because of media coverage– for example, watching the news and reading the newspapers– that it can be difficult for us to understand how likely certain things are to happen. Catastrophic events feel like very real threats, while we tend to forget about the small but chronic risks that become more likely over time.
因為媒體報導，如電視新聞或報紙的報導，我們很難知道某件事發生的可能性。災難性事件的確是很大的威脅，但是我們常常忘記一些細小慢性的風險，這些風險往往隨著時間而增加。
We do. Chronic means something that lasts for a long time. So for example, what if there was a cigarette that killed you as soon as you smoked it? Nobody would do that, would they?
沒錯。慢性是指持續很長時間。例如，如果香煙一吸入就會致死你還會抽嗎？肯定沒有人會去吸煙了，不是嗎？
No, they wouldn’t.
是的。
But plenty of people are happy to smoke for years, and put off worrying about the health risks for the future.
但是很多人常年吸煙，樂在其中，把對健康問題的擔憂留在了以後。
Yes, that’s a good point, Finn! People feel they are in control of risks that stretch over time. You know, they think, ’I could stop tomorrow’ or ’I could smoke less’. But what about people who enjoy taking big risks – those thrill seekers out there?
你說的很有道理。人們自認為可以掌控長期的風險。他們經常想“我明天就戒煙”或“我會少抽一些。”。但是喜歡冒險、尋求刺激的人是怎麼樣的呢？
People who enjoy extreme sports actually seek out danger – it gives them extreme pleasure! So let’s listen to Karina Hollekim from Norway. She’s a base jumper – that’s a person with a parachute who leaps from tall buildings or cliffs – and she’s talking about what she feels about risk.
喜歡極限運動的人實際上是尋求危險，這給予他們極大的快樂。我們聽聽挪威的Karina Hollekim的看法。她喜歡高空跳傘，也就是說攜帶降落傘從高樓或懸崖跳下。她會講述她對風險的看法。
You need to measure the pleasure. Is it going to be worth it for you? So if the risk is really high, it means that the pleasure needs to be equally high. Or hopefully even higher… You can’t measure it on a scale or anything. For me, it’s a stomach feeling. It’s the value within me, and I’m the only one who can tell what value it has to me.
你需要估量你的愉悅感。是否值得你去做？如果危險性很高，那麼它給你帶來的快樂也應該同樣多。或者更多一些，這是理想狀態。但是你無法用一個標準去衡量它。對我來說，就是靠直覺。我的內心在衡量這樣做值不值得。也只有我自己能告訴自己這樣做的價值。
Yes. It must be a magical feeling to step off a cliff, mustn’t it, Finn?
從懸崖上跳下去一定是一種很奇妙的感覺，不是嗎？
‘It’s a stomach feeling’, you know – my stomach would definitely be saying, ’oh no, no, no!’ So why not change the subject and give me the answer to today’s quiz question?
“直覺上就很興奮”，那我的直覺一定是告訴我“千萬不要這樣做，不要，不要！”。不要講這個話題了，我們來看今天問題的答案吧？
I asked: What are your chances of being knocked off your bicycle and killed during a one-mile journey and this is the same as your chances of winning the national lottery? So is it… a) 1 in 4 million? b) 1 in 14 million? Or c) 1 in 400 million?
我的問題是：一英里的路程中你從自行車上摔下來致死的可能性和你中彩票的可能性一樣大。那麼這個概率究竟有多大呢？a)四百萬分之一? b) 一千四百萬分之一?還是 c) 四億分之一?
I said c) 1 in 400 million.
我選的是c) 四億分之一。
Yes. And you were wrong, Finn.
好吧，你回答錯了。
Alright. Really? OK.
啊？真的嗎？好吧。
Yes. The odds are actually 1 in 14 million. You are as likely to win the national lottery from a single ticket as you are to be knocked off your bicycle and killed during a one-mile journey. This statistic comes from the Professor David Spiegelhalter, who is Winton Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk in the Statistical Laboratory at the University of Cambridge in the UK. So I think he really knows his stuff.
這個概率實際上是一千四百萬分之一。你買一張國家彩票就中獎的可能性和你從自行車上摔下來致死的可能性一樣大。這一資料來自David Spiegelhalter教授，他是英國劍橋大學統計實驗室研究公眾對風險的理解的教授。我想他對這方面應該很瞭解。
That’s a very long title, yes, I’m sure he does.
職稱這麼長，我肯定他很瞭解。
Yeah.
沒錯。
So let’s hear today’s words again, Alice?
我們再來聽一下今天的單詞吧？
Here they are:
今天聽到的單詞有：
phobia 恐懼症
risk 風險
probability 可能性
gut reaction 本能反應
catastrophic 災難性的
media coverage 媒體報導
chronic 慢性的
thrill seekers 尋求刺激的人
base jumper 定點跳傘者
And that brings us to the end of today’s 6 Minute English. We hope you were thrilled by today’s programme. Please join us again soon.
今天的六分鐘英語就到這裡。希望你喜歡今天的節目。我們下次再會。
Bye.
再見！
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