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 MP3音檔 (按右鍵可下載聽)：
http://x8.tingvoa.com/…/Gambling-Gave-Science-Some-Lucky-Br…

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🎁 中英文稿：
“It’s not just gamblers using science. In many cases, science has benefited enormously from people studying the house.”
“不僅賭徒會利用科學。在許多情況下，科學會極大受益于研究房子的人群。”
Mathematician Adam Kucharski. He’s the author of the new book The Perfect Bet: How Science and Math Are Taking the Luck Out of Gambling.
數學家Adam Kucharski說道。Adam Kucharski是新書《完美的賭注:科學和數學如何影響賭博的運氣》的作者。
“Back in the Renaissance, actually, probability theory was developed to study these games. I mean, can you imagine having bets where it’s not actually clear what a fair game is?”
早在文藝復興時期，人們就研發了概率論來研究這些遊戲。我的意思是說，你能想像在自己尚不清楚遊戲是否公平時進行下注嗎?
For example, in the 17th century the question came up, do you have the same chance of throwing a six by rolling one die four times or of throwing two sixes by rolling two dice 24 times?
例如，在17世紀人們提出這樣的問題，投擲一個骰子四次得到一個6，與投擲兩個骰子24次得到2個6的概率一樣嗎?
“That had been around awhile, those kinds of bets and those kinds of questions, and that was Fermat and Pascal who developed a lot of this theory. And one of the crucial things was this concept of an expected value: if you play a game repeatedly what do you expect to win on average? And until you have that kind of theory in place it’s very hard to actually compare two bets directly and work out which one is more preferable.”
這個問題已經存在已久，同樣還有類似的賭注以及類似的問題。費爾馬和帕斯卡研發了許多這方面的理論。其中至關重要的是概念的期望值：如果你重複玩一個遊戲，你的平均期望是什麼嗎?如果你掌握了這種理論，就會知道對兩種賭注進行直接比較、得出哪種方式更可取很難。
Pascal figured out that your chances of throwing one six in four rolls of a die was slightly more than 50 percent. But your odds of two sixes in 24 throws of two dice was slightly less than 50 percent.
巴斯卡發現對一個骰子投擲四次得到留個點的幾率略大於50%。但是另一種情況的幾率卻略低於50%。
“And a lot of this theory from probability to statistics and actually more recently things like game theory and chaos theory originated with studying games of chance, so I think science actually has benefitted a lot from people’s curiosity about gambling.”
實際上概率統計理論、博弈理論和混沌理論起源於研究遊戲的獲勝幾率，所以我認為科學受益於人們的賭博好奇心理。”
My full interview with Adam Kucharski about his book The Perfect Bet is at our Web site as a Science Talk podcast.
Adam Kucharski以及其書的全部內容，請參看科學美國人官網站查看科學訪談播客節目。
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