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MP3音檔 (按右鍵可下載聽)：
http://online1.tingclass.net/voaspe/…/20140819sa_science.mp3

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🎁 中英文稿：
Wanna know what the most popular movies, albums and video games are? Ask the internet. But don't Google it. Check what other people Googled. That's the theory behind Google Flu Trends—which crunches search data to forecast flu prevalence. With admittedly mixed results.
如果你想知道現在最受歡迎的電影，唱片和電子遊戲是什麼，問互聯網就可以知道了，但是不要用谷歌搜索。檢查其他人搜索了什麼，這就是谷歌流感趨勢背後所運用的理論——通過處理搜索數據來預測流感的流行。無可否認，結果應該是好壞參半的。
Nevertheless, researchers have applied the idea to the stock market. They found that when searches related to business and politics go up, the market tends to take a dive. Queries for words like "election," "senate," and "CEO" are predictive of the downward trend—but not terms like "church," "earthquake" and "geometry."
然而，研究人員將這一觀點運用到股票市場，他們發現，當與商業和政治相關的搜索增多時，市場就有暴跌的傾向。搜索查詢「選舉」、「參議員」和「首席執行官」這類詞彙時，就會預示著市場會有下跌的趨勢，而「教堂」、「地震」和「幾何學」等則不會產生這樣的效果。
Why the correlation? The researchers say investors and the public may be more likely to search for information on business and government when they're concerned about the economy. And if confidence in the economy drops, so might stock prices. The findings appear in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. [Chester Curme et al, Quantifying the semantics of search behavior before stock market moves]
為什麼它們之間會產生關聯呢?研究人員稱，可能當投資者和大眾擔憂經濟狀況時，他們更傾向於搜索關於商業和政府的相關信息。而且如果他們對經濟的信心下降，可能股票的價格也會下降。該研究被發表在《美國國家科學院院刊》上。
Over time, the correlation weakened—a sign that traders may already be using Internet search data in automated trading algorithms.
隨著時間的推移，這種聯繫會變弱哦——一種跡象表明，交易員可能已經將網絡搜索數據用於進行自動交易運算。
"Generally speaking, if an opportunity like this is known, then the effect will diminish, and that's what we think we're seeing in the data we looked at, from 2004 to 2012." Lead author Chester Curme, a research fellow at the Warwick Business School.
首席作者切斯特‧柯姆，是華威商學院的一名研究人員。他說：「一般來講，如果我們已經知道有這種可能性(機會)，那麼它所產生的這種效果就會減弱。這就是為什麼我們認為要著眼於我們在2004—2012年這些數據中我們所能發現的東西。」
And before you head over to Google Trends, he says, keep this in mind: "If somebody knows that other traders use this method, then a predatory trader could manipulate search volumes on Google artificially in order to deceive other traders." As they say in the biz: past performance does not guarantee future results.
—Christopher Intagliata
他稱，在你去進行搜索趨勢查詢時，要記住：「如果有人知道有其他交易員使用這種方法進行交易，那麼一個掠奪性的交易員為了欺騙其他交易員，就會在谷歌上人為的操控這些搜索數據量。」正如在商業中人們常說的：過去的表現並不能保證未來的結果。—克里斯多夫‧因塔格里塔。

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